Debt, hedging, and human capital

This paper provides a theory of debt and hedging based on human capital. We distinguish human capital from physical capital in two ways: (1) human capital is inalienable and can exercise a one-sided option to leave the firm, and (2) human capital is not perfectly replaceable. We show that a firm may reach the first best solution while issuing debt or equity to outsiders provided that either the insiders receive a senior claim or that the firm hedges. We then show that, given asymmetric information concerning costs, the only viable solution has the firm issuing debt to outsiders and hedging.

Jump risk, time-varying risk premia, and technical trading profits

In this paper we investigate the recently documented trading profits based on technical trading rules in an asset pricing framework that incorporates jump risk and time-varying risk premia. Following Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), we apply popular technical trading rules to the daily S&P 500 index over a long period of time. Trading profits are examined using bootstrap simulation to address distributional anomalies. We estimate a variety of asset pricing models, including the random walk, autoregressive models, a combined jump diffusion model, and a combined model of jump-diffusion and autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Technical trading profits are shown to be statistically significant for the pure diffusion models and autoregressive models, yet become less significant when jump risk is incorporated into the model and virtually disappear for an asset pricing model that incorporates both jump risk and time-varying risk premia. The empirical evidence suggests that technical trading profits could be fair compensation for the risk of price discontinuity as well as time-varying risk premia of asset returns. Alternatively, technical trading profits provide a test of specification of asset pricing models; in this vein the evidence provides support for the incorporation of jump risk into asset pricing models.Financial markets ; Prices

Expected stock returns and volatility in a production economy: a theory and some evidence

The sign of the relationship between expected stock market returns and volatility appears to vary over time, a result that seems at odds with basic notions of risk and return. In this paper we construct an economy where production involves the use of both labor and capital as inputs. We show that when capital investment is "sticky," the sign of the relation between stock market risk and return varies in accordance with the supply of labor but requires no time variation in preferences. In particular, we show that for asset market equilibria where firms face an elastic supply of labor, the traditional positive risk-return relation obtains. Conversely, a negative relation obtains for asset market equilibria where there is positive probability that labor supply will be highly inelastic. A nice feature of our model is that, unlike earlier work, the sign of the stock market risk-return relation can be associated with observable features of the business cycle. Post–World War II macroeconomic and stock return data are used to test the predictions from the model. Using standard measures of stock market volatility, our results provide support for a stock market risk-return relation that is negative at the peaks of business cycles and positive at the troughs.Stock market ; Risk ; Production (Economic theory) ; Business cycles

Concentrated shareholdings and the number of outside analysts

Assuming some fixed cost to information acquisition, diffuse shareholders in publicly held firms have little incentive to produce information that can substitute for the services of financial analysts. However, we argue that concentrated shareholdings, either by outsiders like institutions or by inside managers, reduce the demand for analyst services. The former group finds it worthwhile to produce its own information and avoid any moral hazard problems associated with analyst forecasts, while the concentration of shareholdings by insiders reduces the moral hazard problem associated with outside claimants (Jensen and Meckling 1976) and may work as an independent signal of quality (Leland and Pyle 1977). Earlier authors have provided evidence that the number of analysts following a firm is associated with the distribution of shareholdings between institutions, insiders, and other shareholders. In this paper we provide evidence that, after controlling for any average distributional effects, increased concentration of shareholdings by either insiders or outsiders (like institutions) is associated with lower analyst following. The results are robust to alternative measures of concentration and the definition of outside shareholders.Business enterprises ; Investments ; Stockholders

Hedging, financing, and investment decisions: a simultaneous equations framework

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the interaction between hedging, financing, and investment decisions. This work is relevant in that theoretical predictions are not necessarily identical to those in the case where only two decisions are being made. We argue that the way in which hedging affects the firms’ financing and investing decisions differs for firms with different growth opportunities. We empirically find that high-growth firms increase their investment, but not their leverage, by hedging. However, we also find that firms with few investment opportunities use derivatives to increase their leverage.

Decentralized production and public liquidity with private information

Firms with private information about the outcomes of production under uncertainty may face capital (liquidity) constraints that prevent them from attaining efficient levels of investment in a world with costly and/or imperfect monitoring. As an alternative, we examine the efficiency of a simple pooling scheme designed to provide a public (cooperative) supply of liquidity that results in the first best outcome for economic growth. We show that if, absent aggregate uncertainty, the elasticity of scale of the production technology is sufficiently small, then efficient levels of investment and growth can always be supported. Finally, some results for a special case (constant elasticity of scale) are examined when investors face aggregate uncertainty. We show that, in addition to a low elasticity of scale for the production function, investors must have sufficiently optimistic prior beliefs if efficient growth is to be achieved regardless of the actual future state of the world.Information theory ; Liquidity (Economics) ; Production (Economic theory)

A Dynamic Boundary Guarding Problem with Translating Targets

We introduce a problem in which a service vehicle seeks to guard a deadline (boundary) from dynamically arriving mobile targets. The environment is a rectangle and the deadline is one of its edges. Targets arrive continuously over time on the edge opposite the deadline, and move towards the deadline at a fixed speed. The goal for the vehicle is to maximize the fraction of targets that are captured before reaching the deadline. We consider two cases; when the service vehicle is faster than the targets, and; when the service vehicle is slower than the targets. In the first case we develop a novel vehicle policy based on computing longest paths in a directed acyclic graph. We give a lower bound on the capture fraction of the policy and show that the policy is optimal when the distance between the target arrival edge and deadline becomes very large. We present numerical results which suggest near optimal performance away from this limiting regime. In the second case, when the targets are slower than the vehicle, we propose a policy based on servicing fractions of the translational minimum Hamiltonian path. In the limit of low target speed and high arrival rate, the capture fraction of this policy is within a small constant factor of the optimal.Comment: Extended version of paper for the joint 48th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control and 28th Chinese Control Conferenc

Derivatives and corporate risk management: participation and volume decisions in the insurance industry

In this paper we formulate and test a number of hypotheses regarding insurer participation and volume decisions in derivatives markets. Several specific hypotheses are supported by our analysis. We find evidence consistent with the idea that insurers are motivated to use financial derivatives to hedge the costs of financial distress, interest rate, liquidity, and exchange rate risks. We also find some evidence that insurers use these instruments to hedge embedded options and manage their tax bills. We also find evidence of significant economies of scale in the use of derivatives. Interestingly, we often find that the predetermined variables we employ display opposite signs in the participation and volume regressions. We argue that this result is broadly consistent with the hypothesis that there is also a per unit premium associated with hedging and that, conditional on having risk exposures large enough to warrant participation, firms with a larger appetite for risk will be less willing than average to pay this marginal cost.Corporations - Finance ; Derivative securities ; Financial services industry ; Business enterprises